Is the Skyscraper curse coming to Indian shores next?

Realty major Lodha Developers plans to build the world's tallest residential tower at a cost of Rs 2,000 crore in central Mumbai. The 1,450-feet WorldOne will come up at Upper Worli on a 17-acre plot, by 2014. The units would be priced between Rs 7.5 and Rs 50 crore or Rs 25,000 per sq ft. "The project, pegged at Rs 2,000 crore and to be built on a 17-acre site, will have the world's tallest residential tower," Lodha Group managing director Abhishek Lodha told reporters in Mumbai.. Lodha bought the land for the ambitious project at an obnoxious amount-Rs 4050 crore for 25,000 square meters of land in mid-town Mumbai.

So what does it have to do with Skyscraper curse? Skyscraper curse is an urban legend-when tall buildings are launched searing into the sky, it signals the end of an economic boom. It signifies the height of economic optimism and it is during such moments that opportune timing gets mistaken for genius. With examples dating back to the biblical Tower of babel, there are enough believers in the skyscraper curse. Even though there is no scientific evidence to back this outlandish claim, there is enough circumstantial evidence to make people pause and think.

The iconic Chrysler and Empire State Buildings came up in 1930 when the Great Depression had just set in. Sears Towers in Chicago was completed in 1973, and was followed by the worst bear market in a decade – the Dow declined 45 percent. Petronas Towers opened in Kuala Lumpur in 1998, and the Malaysian stock market plunged 50 per cent, not to mention the Asian contagion that preceded it. In 1999, the Nasdaq inaugurated its MarketSite Tower, and three months later, the Nasdaq composite index crashed 70 per cent. It is still trading 50 per cent below its all-time high. Enron was building a 40-storey structure when it went bankrupt in 2002. The much-touted Burj Dubai had to be rechristened as Burj Khalifa to return the favor to Big Brother Abu Dhabi for rescuing it from a sovereign debt default. Dubai continues to struggle under the weight of the tallest building in the world.

Is the link between skyscrapers and a waning economy one of mere correlation without causation and, therefore, should be passed off as trivia? Possibly not. Ambitious real estate projects are signs of a prosperous economy, businesses are bullish and people are willing to spend-lavishly, even if its is just to massage their ego. Typically though, such big projects take time. And by the time they come up, the economic cycles turn and slowdown is ready to scalp those whose liquidity taps have run dry.

So the first thing that comes to mind when Lodha group announced its intention to gift Mumbai its tallest building-is the skyscraper curse coming to Indian shores next?

Rajesh