Events that made headlines in 2009

As we say good bye to 2009, here is a look at the events that made headlines around the world.  

2009 undoubtedly belongs to Barack Obama who was sworn in as the 44th, and first African American, President of the United States. He received Nobel prize for peace for no apparent reasons raising many eye brows. Perhaps his order to close within a year the Guantánamo Bay detention camp in Cuba, where the US had held non-citizens whom it accused of terrorism, did the trick?

In February, the deadliest bush fires in Australian history began; killing 173, injured many, and left 7,500 homeless. The fires came after Melbourne recorded the highest-ever temperature (46.4°C, 115°F) of any capital city in Australia. The heat was so unbearable the Aussies turned to poor Indian students and beat the hell out of them.

Tiger woods became the first sports person in history to admit transgressions. He decided to take time off from golf to concentrate on adult movies.

The death of American entertainer Michael Jackson in June triggered an outpouring of worldwide grief. Online, reactions to the event crippled several major websites, as the abundance of people accessing the web pushed internet traffic to unprecedented levels. It turned out that most of the people were searching the internet to figure out if he was Black or White.

Swine Flu is deemed a global pandemic and even terrorists are looking at ways to take it to their advantage.

Dubai sneezes and the world catches a flu. In November, Dubai requested a debt deferment following its massive building projects, as well as the late 2000s economic crisis. The announcement caused global stock markets to drop.

Copenhagen climate meeting began with a bang but ended up with the world leaders banging up each other. Leading Bollywood actresses threatened to drop their clothes potentially pushing up global warming if a resolution is not made at the summit.

2009 also witnessed earth quakes, Tsunami, plane crashes, solar eclipse, terrorist attacks and a Hollywood movie telling us that the world will end in the year 2012. Finally, James Cameron the director who gave us the movie Titanic returning after 12 years with the mother of all movies Avatar with a $400 million budget. The movie is receiving rave reviews and the initial sign is that it is going to be a mega block buster.

That said, my personal favorite event is the rise of an unexpected star. YouTube announced that its 2009 star was Susan Boyle, the frumpy Scottish woman who mesmerized the world with a heartwarming rendition of "I Dreamed A Dream" on a British talent show in April.

Boyle, now 48, ended up taking second place in that competition, but no one came close to outshining her on YouTube. Her "Britain's Got Talent" videos attracted more than 300 million views worldwide.

Entertainment weekly said that Boyle's performance was a victory for talent and artistry in a culture obsessed with physical attractiveness and presentation. New York's Daily News said that an underdog being ridiculed or humiliated but then enjoying an unexpected triumph is a common trope in literature, and the stark contrast between the audience's low expectations and the quality of her singing made Boyle's performance such an engaging piece of television.

Boyle's first album, I Dreamed a Dream, was released on 23 November 2009. The album made it to No. 1 spot in UK, Ireland, US, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Switzerland. 

As we embark ourselves to say good bye to 2009 and welcome a more exciting 2010, enjoy Susan Boyle's performance at Britain's Got Talent and be inspired.

Mobile tariff war to hit revenues

With the entry of mobile operator Uninor in Dec 2009  into India's crowded mobile market, the competition takes a new turn in an already heated market. Uninor launched their operation with an unprecedented 29 paise per minute for local calls and 49 paise per minute for STD calls. Uninor is a collaboration of Unitech wireless and Telenor Norway in which Telenor holds 67.25% stake. 

The tariff war by new telecom entrants in India and the likely retaliation by incumbent operators, will have a significant impact on industry revenues and profitability. The reduced tariffs will lower the average revenue per user (ARPUs) and operating margins for all industry players. The latest figures indicate average revenue per user (ARPU) remains below Rs 200. Keep in mind that this is a significant decline comparing to figures early in 2005 when the operators enjoyed an arpu of Rs 400. Despite the significant drop in arpu, operators still enjoy a margin due to continuous addition of new subscribers. 

As per rating agency Fitch, the Indian telecom industry is witnessing price wars with the entry of the new telecom operators, which were allotted universal access service licenses (UASLs) in February 2008 by the Department of Telecommunication (DOT). The new entrants (Aircel, Sistema Shyam Teleservices Ltd (SSTL) and Tata Docomo (GSM)) have launched aggressive tariff plans in an effort to garner subscriber market share. These new entrants have launched per second billing, either selectively or throughout their networks forcing incumbent operators to follow suit, while Tata CDMA has launched tariffs on a per call basis, irrespective of duration (Re 1 and Re 3 per call on local and STD, respectively). Following this trend, Reliance communication has reduced the tariff to 50 paise per minute for local, STD, roaming and SMS, for both off-net and on-net calls.

However, Fitch expects new entrants to face increasing difficulties in garnering any meaningful market share, with already low tariffs leading to lower ARPUs, a lack of adequate spectrum quality and restrictions on spectrum sharing. Fitch believes that the reduced industry profitability will likely expedite industry consolidation in the medium to long term reducing the number of players in the market.

As of end Oct 2009, mobile subscriber base in India stood at 482 million with Airtel leading the pack with 23.45% market share.

Here is how the picture looks like in terms of market share as of 31 Oct 2009.

Rajesh Kumar

Dubai Crisis: Who will have the last laugh?

What do you get when you get a pile of borrowed money, cheap labors from South Asia and a desert with limitless ambition? You get the modern Dubai. Call it Capitalism with a capital “C”.

Dubai's boasts of "biggest, tallest, richest" have lost their allure. Yet the Dubai local media is all praises for the “sons of the desert” who transformed the desert into a dream city.

To recap the turn of events, on the eve of the Eid religious festival, the Dubai government announced that one of its main investment vehicles, Dubai World, could not pay its bills. Like many over-leveraged companies that are being exposed by the recession, Dubai had borrowed beyond its means to fund its building boom that went bust. The British banks and investors that have poured many Billions into funding the Dubai dream now face an uncertain future over how much of their money could be lost.

With borrowed money, the smart Sheikhs not only built the biggest and tallest buildings back home but also went on an overseas spending spree snapping up many plum assets. They bought the Golf courses in England, paid $82m for the QE2 liner, bought luxury hotels like the Mandarin Oriental in New York, and took a 22% stake in the London Stock Exchange.

Dubai Holding, Dubai government's flagship company after launching its own private-equity firm, Dubai International Capital (DIC), paid $1 billion for a stake in Daimler Chrysler, the car maker, followed that by acquiring Tussauds Group, owner of the famous waxworks museum and a string of theme parks. DIC also has an undisclosed sum invested in Sony Corporation as well as a 2.87% stake in India's ICICI bank.

In Britain, DIC bought Doncasters, the engineering firm, and Travelodge, the budget-hotel chain.

In 2006, with borrowed money, DP World a subsidiary of Dubai World acquired P&O, a terminal operating company that operates marine terminal facilities worldwide, for $6.8 billion. 

When the going gets tough, the tough goes partying. Amidst the global financial crisis, Dubai splurged $20 million back in 2008 for the inauguration of the Atlantis, a garish $1.5bn hotel complex with 1,539 rooms boasting $35,000 a night suite. It was reported that at the time of the launch the Atlantis had a long waiting list for its highly priced suits. Among those who showed up for what the local press described as the "party of the decade" were Hollywood stars Robert de Niro, Charlize Theron, Mischa Barton and Wesley Snipes.

Who finally spoiled the party? Can you blame the Sheikhs alone? An elite group of expatriates head some of the biggest firms in Dubai. To name a few, David Eldon, a Scot is the Chairman of Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC).Gerald Lawless, an Irish is the Executive Chairman of Jumeirah Group, Maurice Flanagan, Executive Vice-chairman of Emirates, and Rick Pudner, Chief executive of Emirates NBD (merged entity of Emirates Bank and National Bank of Dubai) are British.

In addition, an army of expatriate advisors might be surrounding the over ambitious Sheikhs imparting wisdom. Don't forget that these affluent expatriates were paid quite handsomely too. Little did they realize that they were splurging on their own country's money borrowed by the Sheikhs.

There is an old adage about the UAE: "Emirates stands for English-Managed, Indian-Run, Arabs Taking Enormous Salaries." Going forward, at some point, Dubai will emerge from its current crisis but not without some collateral damage. The current Sheikhdom crisis, some term as minuscule comparing to the global financial crisis will become history. 

With borrowed money, splurging big time on construction and acquisitions, the Sheikhs had the time of their lives living their dreams. Who knows, they probably will accomplish even more going forward. Now you could very well guess who will have the last laugh.

Rajesh Kumar

 

Dubai Debt Crisis

Following my recent posting about the crisis in Dubai, it was not at all surprising to hear about Dubai World wanting to delay its debt payments of nearly $80 Billion. The crisis will have far reaching repercussions no matter how much one tries to play down. The initial knee-jerk reaction saw the stock markets across the world taking a plunge.

Dubai World’s largest creditors are domestic banks in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. 

Worst hit by the Dubai crisis is Britain. UK banks account for nearly $50 Billion of global loans to United Arab Emirates. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) leads the pack. HSBC, Standard Chartered and Barclays are next in the pack. In addition to UK banks, UK firms have invested nearly $7.5 Billion in Dubai. 

Dubai holds nearly $10 Billion of investments in Britain. Some of the big investments include, 21% stake in London Stock Exchange, 100% stake in QE2 cruise liner, 80% ownership in Travelodge and so on.

As far as India is concerned, initial estimate shows that Indian banks' exposure to Dubai is nearly 6500 Crores. RBI has already requested the banks to submit their actual exposure to Dubai. Property developers in India have confirmed that their  exposure to Dubai is negligible. The biggest worry for India is the impact on remittance from Dubai.  

What is next for Dubai in terms of servicing the enormous debt?

One possibility is, Dubai's deeper pocketed neighbor Abu Dhabi coming to the rescue with some conditions attached. Abu Dhabi has already bailed out Dubai with $10 billion in Feb this year. However a total bail out is unlikely to happen. The early indication is that Abu Dhabi may attempt to bail out Dubai on a case by case basis.  

The worst case scenario is Dubai asking for write off of its debt. It will be suicidal for the emirate. If this occurs, it will have serious ramification on fund flows into emerging economies. However this scenario is quite unlikely to happen.

Holders of the Islamic bonds of Nakheel, the developer owned by Dubai World that is known for the palm-themed islands it built is most in pain. On Dec. 14, 2009, $3.52 billion in Nakheel bonds come due. Next course of developments will be based on whether Dubai will be able to make this payment on time.

Rajesh Kumar

The traits of a great politician

Who would make an ideal politician? While there may be differing views, I am sure we could all agree on some common traits that make up a great politician.
 

Winston Churchill said that a politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year: and to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen.

Good politicians should work for the nation. The nation's interest must be kept paramount while taking decisions and not for promoting self or party image. Politicians must not indulge in appeasement policies for influencing the electorates to cast their votes in exchange for favors. Nepotism and favoritism must be banished and he/she should shed fundamentalism in religious practices.

Politicians should adopt human religion. They should visit their constituency regularly and spread the message of tolerance towards believers of other religions.

Politicians should work hard for improving the system of governance. 

Successful politicians everywhere know that getting results does not depend on managing the process. Success depends on leading the people who elect them to be their leader. Good politicians will not just learn these principles but actually apply them by practicing these principles. They should know what makes their electorate tick, and how to use human behavior techniques to inspire, motivate and be their leader by setting and achieving goals.

A good politician needs humility. The politician with a monstrous ego is an offensive and objectionable creature. The egotist tends to forget that they are elected to act on behalf of the public.

Charismatic: A very rare trait that we see in today's politicians. The inclusion of charisma on this list is not intended to suggest that someone who lacks charisma is incapable of being a good politician. We have all experienced or encountered an individual who insists upon certain "rules" being followed no matter how silly, absurd or nonsensical they may be. The practical politician looks for solutions and isn't beholden to tradition or "rules" that defy common sense.

Strong/Tough/Fearless: A politician should not be afraid to stand up for what is right even though it may be unpopular. A reputation for weakness will not serve the public well. Sometimes you just have to be willing to fight.

The picture that emerges for our model politician sounds reassuring. Today the electorates are confused and often misled. Along the lines of religion, caste or language, divide and rule has become the norm.  Our politicians are well aware of this and don't fail to take advantage of that.

At the end of the day what the common man expect from their politicians is an assurance that they would make sincere efforts to become good and deliver what they have promised. 

A Look at the fall of Dubai

A six-year boom that turned sand dunes into a glittering metropolis, creating the world’s tallest building, its biggest shopping mall and, some say, a shrine to unbridled capitalism, has grinding to a halt. Dubai, one of seven states that make up the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is in crisis. So, too, are the western expatriates. Many came here expecting to make millions in property and to soak up a lavish lifestyle living alongside footballers, actors and supermodels.

But the real estate bubble that propelled the frenetic expansion of Dubai on the back of borrowed cash and speculative investment has burst. Many westerners are being made redundant, or absconding before the Sharia legal system catches up with them. Half of all the UAE’s construction projects have either been put on hold or cancelled, leaving a trail of half-built towers on the outskirts of the city stretching into the desert.

Deserts have a way of reclaiming whatever is built upon them. In the case of Dubai, the global financial implosion has sent that process into overdrive. After six years of frenzied expansion, and nearly $600 billion went into construction, reality has come rushing into view. After the party was over, Dubai, the second-largest member of the U.A.E., is struggling under $80 billion of debt amassed during the expansion.

Dubai's expansion was as ambitious as it was improbable. Dubailand, a $64 billion mixed-use development initially planned at 107 square miles, was to be the world's largest collection of theme parks, shops, residences, and hotels. For now, though, its roller coasters, life-size dinosaurs, snowy mountainscape, and polar bears will remain a fantasy, one of the gaudier casualties of the economic downturn. While formal cancellations are rare in Dubai, a number of other projects have been delayed or scuttled, including an underwater hotel; a Tiger Woods golf course; a residential community set among full-scale replicas of the Seven Wonders of the World; a rotating skyscraper; and a beach designed by Versace, complete with chilled sand.

Dubai was a modest trading settlement until the 1980s. Fueled by cheap credit, tax-free living, and limitless ambition, the city-state pushed into the desert and up to the sky, culminating in the frenetic growth of the past six years. Now, with cash scarce and many of Dubai's expats moving away, the cranes (a quarter of the world's supply) have quieted and the streets are all but empty.

Once Dubai's most valuable import, foreign laborers have become a liability to their former employers. Hundreds of thousands of them, mostly from South Asia, were drawn by the promise of plentiful work and money to send home to their families. Now that much of Dubai's construction has ground to a halt, many are being sent home; the number of migrant workers here has reportedly fallen by a third. Of those who remain, many are locked in labor disputes: They can't work, but can't leave. These jobless Bangladeshi men can't return home because, as frequently happens, their employers confiscated their visas, effectively leaving them shackled. Living four to a room in a labor camp, they haven't been paid in months. They say they live as "ghosts" in a "prison," unacknowledged and unknown.

Construction of the much-hyped project, an archipelago of 300 man-made islands designed to resemble a world map, helped extend Dubai's 45 miles of natural coastline to 467 miles, enough for everyone to have waterfront property -- or so the brochures promised. The site used more than 34 million tons of rock and 320 million cubic meters of sand (making Dubai, oddly, a sand importer). State-owned mega developer Nakheel promotes the islands as "a blank canvas for orchestrating your own version of paradise, and where you'll discover that the World really can revolve around you." To some, however, the project represents Dubai's fundamental flaws: overbuilding and poor planning. Despite prices ranging from $20 million to $50 million, the islands are without power or sewer systems. And while 70% of them have already been sold, development has begun on only one.

As expats take flight, indebted and disillusioned, they leave behind relics of their former lives: new cars, left to accumulate dust and the comments of passersby. The government will not release numbers, but it's estimated that more than 3,000 abandoned cars have been found in 2009, many with keys in the ignition, an apology note on the windshield, or maxed-out credit cards in the glove compartment.  

Damage control is already underway. Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum has consolidated his hold on the debt-laden emirate, downgrading powerful figures behind the city-state’s  boom that turned to a bust. The ruler has sacked the governor of the Dubai International Financial center (DIFC). He has also removed three members from the board of Dubai’s main holding company, the Investment Corporation of Dubai. The three were at the forefront of a construction drive that began in 2002 and collapsed last year.

Dubai has been cranking up efforts to tackle its $80 billion debt pile with senior officials heading to Asia to meet potential investors amid reports that one of its most indebted companies has repaid a $1.2 billion bond ahead of schedule.

Top officials from Dubai’s Department of Finance is reported to have met fixed income and Islamic investors in Hong Kong, Singapore, London, Dubai and Frankfurt ahead of possibly selling more debt this year.  

Sheikh Mohammed is trying to salvage his business empire by merging assets, said Christopher Davidson, a professor at Durham University in the U.K. “The ruler’s main government-backed companies are on the verge of bankruptcy and rapid centralization of these bits and pieces is needed to hold them above water,”

Abu Dhabi, which has 90% of oil in the UAE, holder of the world’s sixth-largest crude reserves, bailed out its fellow emirate in February with a $10 billion Dubai bond issue subscribed entirely by the UAE central bank. Dubai is seeking to raise another $10 billion, a significant portion from the federal government in Abu Dhabi.

Perhaps Dubai has taken its ambition to be the the best in everything they do a bit too far too fast. The crisis has firmly placed its foot on the ground. How is it going to pay back the massive debt? Will it ever come back to its former glory? Let us wait and watch.

Courtesy: Fast Company

Recession explained

The recent recession has taken a huge toll on people across the world. Everyone in the planet is affected by it in some way or the other. During a recession all sort of bad things happen. Millions loose jobs. Real estate values plunge. Companies go bankrupt. Stock markets crash. Air travel is significantly reduced. Bank lending will come to a standstill. People spend less. Everyone associate all bad things happening to them to the recession.

The best part about recession is that, when it happens, economists scream from their roof tops about the impending danger. It is the subject of discussion and debate in every nook and corner. Unless you are staying in a cave and is totally cut off from the rest of the world, you are unlikely to miss this. However once we recover from the recession, no one tells you about that. You can't blame them because the recovery is a gradual process.  

So how does one determine we are out of the woods? Well, some of the signs are recovery in the stock market, companies resume hiring in masses, banks start lending money, real estate values start picking up and so on. Until the arrival of the next recession everything looks rosy.

Where do we stand now? Experts state that we are on a road to recovery. Only time can tell.

It is a vicious cycle. The recovery does not mean it is the beginning of eternal glory for world economy. The cycle will continue. World economies will rise and fall. Today's renewed hope will be the beginning of another bubble in the making which will get burst eventually.  

How did the recent crisis begin? You may have heard terms like Credit crisis, Sub-prime mortgages, Collateralized Debt Obligation or CDO and so on. Here is an attempt to put all the pieces together. Courtesy Jonathan Jarvis.

The credit crisis brings two group of people together. The home owners and investors. Home owners represent their mortgages and investor represents their money. These mortgages represent houses and investors represent large institutions like pension fund, insurance companies, sovereign fund, mutual funds etc. These groups are brought together through the financial system by a bunch of banks and brokers commonly known as Wall Street. These banks on Wall Street are closely connected to these houses on main street. To understand how let us look a little further.  

Years ago the investors were sitting on a pile of money looking for their good investment to turn into more money. Traditionally they go to federal reserve (the US central bank) or they turn to treasury bill believed to be the safest investment. Due to lower interest rates offered by fed, investors said no thanks to fed and treasury bill. On the flip side, Banks on wall street could borrow money easily from fed at lower interest rates. Add to that general surpluses from Japan, China and the Middle East and there is an abundance of cheap credit. This makes borrowing money easier for banks and causes them to go crazy with leverage. Leverage is borrowing money to amplify the outcome of a deal. Leverage makes good deals into great deals. This is a major way Banks make their money. So Wall street takes out tons of credit, makes great deals and grows tremendously rich and then pays it back. So far so good.

The investors (the large institutions mentioned above) sitting with a pile of cash see this and wants a piece of the action and this gives wall street an idea. They can connect the investors to the home owners through mortgages. Here is how it works. A family wants a house. So they save for a down payment and contact a mortgage broker. The mortgage broker connects the family to a lender who gives them a mortgage. The broker makes a nice commission. The family buys the house and becomes home owners. This is great for them because housing price have been rising practically forever. Everything works out nicely. One day the lender gets a call from the investment banker who wants to buy the mortgage. The lender sells it to him for a very nice fee. The investment banker then borrows millions of dollars and buys thousands more mortgages and puts them into a nice little box. This means every month he gets the payment from the home owners for all the mortgages in the box. He then cuts the box into three slices and name them 'safe', 'okay' and 'risky'. Then packs the slices back up in the box and call it a collateralized debt obligation or CDO.  

A CDO works like 3 cascading trays. As money comes in, the top tray (namely 'safe') fills in first and spills over into the middle (okay) and whatever is left into the bottom(risky). The money comes from home owners paying off their mortgages. If some owners don't pay and default on their mortgage, less money comes in and the bottom tray may not get filled. This makes the bottom tray riskier and the top tray safer. To compensate for the higher risks the bottom tray receives high rate of return and the top tray receives lower but still a nice return. The credit rating agencies stamp the top trays a AAA rating making it the safest. The okay tray gets a rating BBB still pretty good and they don't bother to rate the risky slice. Because of the AAA rating the investment banker can sell the safe slice to the investors who only want safe investments. He sells the okay slice to other bankers and the risky slices to the hedge funds and other risk takers. The investment banker makes millions. He then repays his loans. Finally the investors have found a good investment for their money much better than the 1% treasury bills. They are so pleased they want more CDO slices. So the investment banker calls up the lender wanting more mortgages. The lender calls up the broker for more home owners but the broker can't find anyone. Everyone that qualifies for a mortgage already has one.  

But they have an idea. When home owners default on their mortgage the lender gets their house and houses are already increasing in value. Since they are covered if the home owners default, lenders can start adding risk to new mortgages, not requiring down payments, no proof of income, no documents at all. That is exactly what they did. So instead of lending to responsible home owners, called prime mortgages, they started to get some that were less responsible. These are sub-prime mortgages. This is the turning point. So just like always, the mortgage broker connects the family with the lender and a mortgage making his commission, the family buys a big house, the lender sells the mortgage to the investment banker. He turns it into a CDO and sells slices to the investors and others. This actually works out nicely to everyone and makes them all rich. No one was worried because as soon as they sold the mortgage to the next guy it was his problem. If the home owners were to default, they didn't care. They were selling off the risk to the next guy and making millions like playing hot potato with a time bomb.  

Not surprisingly the home owners default on their mortgage which at this moment is owned by the banker. This means he forecloses and one of his monthly payments turns into a house. No big deal. He puts it up for sale. But more and more of his monthly payments turn into houses. Now there are so many houses for sale on the market, creating more supply than there is demand and housing prices aren't rising anymore. In fact they plummet.

This creates and interesting problem for home owners still paying their mortgages. As all the houses in their neighborhood go up for sale the value of their house goes down and they start to wonder why they are paying back their $300,000 mortgage when their house is now worth only $90,000. They decide that it doesn't make sense to continue paying even though they can afford to and they walk away from their houses. Default rates sweep the country and prices plummet. Now the investment banker is basically holding a box full of worthless houses. Because of his buddy the investor to sell his CDO. But the investor is not stupid and says no thanks. He knows the stream of money isn't even a dribble anymore. The banker tries to sell to everyone but no body wants to buy his bomb. He is freaking out as he borrowed millions of dollars to buy these bombs and he can't pay it back and can't get rid of it. 

But he is not the only one. The investors have already bought thousands of these bombs. The lender calls up trying to sell his mortgage but the banker won't buy it and the broker is out of work. The whole financial system is frozen and things get dark. Every body starts going bankrupt. But that's not all. The investor calls up the home owner and tells him that his investments are worthless and you can begin to see how the crisis flows in a vicious cycle. Welcome to the crisis of credit.

Rajesh Kumar