Kerala elections 2016 and the state's economic outlook

The fourteenth legislative assembly elections is on its way to elect  members of the 140 constituencies in Kerala.  In the past elections, with out fail we have seen the political bias of the people of Kerala swinging  between the  Congress led UDF and the Communist led LDF. So this year if we go by the past trend and supported by the plethora of media result predictions,  LDF is likely to rule the state. It is widely predicted that the BJP will create history and may open an account for the first time in Kerala.

This article is not an attempt to go into the merit of electing any particular front, rather it focuses on the current state of affairs of Kerala which lags way behind other states in India and how to make economic progress going forward.

Kerala is known around the world for its beautiful green landscapes, sandy beaches, and sublime backwaters. Kerala is different from any other state of India with comparatively fewer people below poverty line, and a very high human development index. That is not all, though. Kerala has the lowest infant mortality in India, highest life expectancy, and lowest school dropout rate in the country. These are all qualities par with that of a developed country. 

Yet, Kerala has a laggard economy which depends heavily on tourism and the money from the Gulf, sent in by 2 million of Malayalis who work abroad. Lack of job opportunities is a huge concern in the state. There is not much of a manufacturing base to this state thanks to the militant labor unions supported by political parties. So job opportunities in Kerala are far lesser compared to other states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Tripura and Delhi—where there is a lot more manufacturing competitiveness.

People from Kerala are forced to migrate because there are no jobs at home. “Manufacturing in Kerala is a sector which is almost dead. This state is too focused on the service industry, such as tourism.

Some analysts say that the problem starts from the fact that Kerala is an overpoliticized and “over-extended state”. They debate that radical unions, encouraged by successive communist governments, have acted as “pressure groups advancing particular vested interests”. Amartya Sen, Nobel laureate economist says Kerala has to “learn from the world”. Its famed model of development, which is still hyped as the most inclusive one, appears to have hit the buffers. Economists say that the Kerala model is grinding to a halt because the social and political groups having fulfilled their original agenda now have no new agendas. Society has lost its capacity to set collective goals.

Having said that the ASSOCHAM (Associated chambers of commerce and Industry of India) economic research bureau has recently made the following recommendations to propel the economic growth of Kerala which the politicians taking the office need pay attention and set their focus on.

Agro-based and Food Processing

The food processing industry has been recognized as a potential area for development of enterprises in the state. Food processing industry can play a significant role in the Kerala economy. It not only would contribute to the food requirements of the state it has an employment orientation too as it is highly labor intensive.

Textile and Garments

The textile industry undoubtedly is also one of the important segments of the State economy. The need of the hour is to further strengthen this industry, enabling it to fully exploit available opportunities in the domestic & export markets, and realize its full potential.

Rubber Industry

Rubber is another key industry providing employment opportunities for the farming community. The State must act as a facilitator towards their better growth prospects. A few possible ways to help them could be the following:

Given the nature of rubber plantations, institutional credit is scarcely available to rubber plantation sector. As rubber plantation requires large capital in the first year of plantation itself, the growers face lot of hardship in generating their own capital. Greater availability of finance will encourage more farmers to take up rubber plantation, who are otherwise not able to do so due to inability to self-finance the activity.

Rubber prices are subject to wild fluctuations owing to both domestic and international factors. The State government must try to provide some sort of stability to this.

Rubber plantation farmers often do not realize fair selling price. The middlemen marketing chains affect the profitability of small holders. Rising labor costs, volatile fertilizer prices are the two other severe challenges faced by rubber farmers. The price instability is driving the small farmers to indebtedness. Promoting farmer producer societies that function as self help group and empowers the farmers economically needs to be encouraged.

Tourism

Tourism sector plays significant role in the social-economic development of Kerala. As we have seen significant growth has been recorded in terms of tourist arrival and foreign exchange earning of the state. State should ensure upon providing adequate infrastructure facility and encourage private sector participation for the tourism sector development.

In conclusion, a stable and reliable government are key to achieving the above goals. If the incumbent government focuses on the development of the state their primary goal, the result will speak for itself and political stability can be assured. Policies that do work need to be cemented rather than overturned by the next government taking the office. The people of Kerala will thank them and keep them voting back to power.

Politicians need to realize that outdated ideologies or rather bankrupt ideologies have no place in the present scenario.

The outgoing prime minister Dr. Manmohan Singh's farewell letter to the world leaders

As he prepares to demit office,  prime minister  Manmohan Singh wrote farewell letters to leaders of various countries including US president Barrack Obama, former Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, and Russian Prime minister Vladimir Putin.

Here is a hilarious look at what he might have written to them.

Dear fellow leaders,

It is with mixed feelings  I am writing this letter to you as May 16^th 2014 marks my last day in the prime minister’s office of the largest democracy in the world, India.

I had  never aspired to be a prime minister. My strength always lies in economics. In 1991 Narasimha Raoji inducted me in the cabinet as finance minister to rescue India from a severe economic crisis. I was quite contented with my role then. In 2004 Soniaji unexpectedly relinquished the prime ministership, I became an accidental prime minister. Sanjay Baru even wrote a book by this title. Then everything went south. I had no idea what I was getting myself into. Little did I realize that I was a cover for the dramas about to unfold.

I have always been regarded as a man of clean background. Moreover I have been lauded “as a man of few words” . I took these as compliments. Then came the greatest shock in 2012, when Time magazine’s Asian edition cover remarked me as an “underachiever”. I have been accused as  a person “unwilling to stick his neck out”. Those remarks hurt to me to the core. My public image has been tarnished with my government having been accused of various corruption scandals for which I was a silent witness. I have been termed as a puppet of a powerful political family.

Friends,  my silences and unwillingness to project myself became more manifest in my second tenure and I would like you to know that I kept a low profile only because I didn’t want to rise above Soniaji.  

Looking back, I regret that I didn’t stand firm enough to fight corruption, didn’t stand opposed to micromanagement of Gandhi family for leadership was never my forte. I am extremely worried about the future course of my party which especially lacks leadership and a front runner for the prime ministership.

Finally, I can say this with confidence that there will never be a prime minister in India with such an elaborate list of paper qualifications that I possess.

I wish you all good luck.

Singh is King.

Is the upcoming Indian parliament election a game changer or a mockery of the democratic process?

The stage is set for the biggest democratic electoral process in the world where approximately 814.5 million Indians out of a population of over a billion people will exercise their democratic right in the coming months. According to the center for media studies the political parties are expected to spend 30,500 crores ($ 5 billion) in this election.  In addition this election will also cost the exchequer 3500 crores ($573 million). As you can see the cost of democracy is enormous.

While the political bigwigs Congress and BJP are in the lead, neither of them appear to achieve the majority to form the goverment. Which means that a coalition government will take oath once again with the support of regional parties. In return the plum offers these regional parties are likely to receive is another matter for debate.

It happens only in India. Little seems to have changed with major political parties continuing to partronize candidates with criminal records. Both Congress and BJP continue to give tickets to candidates with serious criminal records including murder.

A surprise entry in the upcoming parliament election is the AAP (Aam Atmi Party)  projected as the common man’s party.  Holding a broom which symbolizes a promise to clean up corruption deeply rooted in Indian politics, AAP appears to make their presence felt in the Indian politics under the leadership of Mr. Arvind Kejriwal.  A number of eminent people who have been fed up with the existing political parties now have a choice and a good reason to enter politics and make an impact.

While Narendra Modi of BJP is potentially the next Prime minister if BJP takes center stage with the support of National democratic alliance, it is debatable as to whether Modi can replicate across India the success he made in his home state Gujarat given the fact that a prime minister has limitation especially under a coalition government. In a coalition goverment it is hard to always please the allies as they remain a permanent pain in the neck. Being a hardliner, whether Modi will be able to please the allies through out his 5 years term is another matter of concern.

The curse of India is the countless regional parties who are opportunistic and tend to change their position in a split second if their demands are not met.  The writings are on the wall. The deep divide between regions inherent in our political system is clearly evident thanks to the various political parties. Whoever takes on the power to steer India has a huge challenge ahead.

What does it all mean to a billion population?  There are many questions to be answered. Will the new government be able to provide sustainable and inclusive (benefiting everyone across India without discrimination) growth? Will they be able to put control on inflation? Etc etc..

The biggest democratic electoral system has its own flaws.  People have very limited choice in terms of who they want to handover the power to. No matter which party comes to power, a corruption free India is a distant dream or will remain a mirage.

Well, don’t lose heart. If you are not happy with any of the projected candidates, the election commission has bestowed you with an unprecedented option to vote NOTA (None of the above).  Meaning that no candidate deserves my vote and in all likely hood many who are fed up with the existing political system will choose to go for that option. Post election, the upcoming parties like the AAP may very well capitalize the statistics of the NOTAs so that they can position themselves better to exploit the gaps going forward.  Is the option NOTA going to change anything for the winning candidate? Probably very little. The candidate who gets the highest vote still wins despite the significant drop in the candidate’s vote banks.

The fate of India and its biggest population are sealed even before the election. With no credible political parties in the race, you and I can do very little about it by the voting process. Isn't that frustrating? Well as depressing as it may sound, that doesn’t give much hope for the progress of India. Does it? God bless the Indians.